Sunday morning (re)read at a sunny cafe: Innovators Dilemma

Archive for February, 2009

A few months ago, I highlighted HP Lab’s report on Twitter, and requested that the team contact me for lunch. They did, and a few weeks ago I met with Dr. Bernardo Huberman who is a Senior HP Fellow and Director of the Social Computing Lab in Palo Alto, see photo. While only one of about 20 labs at HP, this one focused on social computing is of particular interest to me. Their studies of social behaviors as it relates to technology, psychology, and sociology is interesting you can see a list of their public reports.

HP’s social computing team has over a dozen scientists to who conduct experiments to see how people will react to a variety of situations –many of these findings lead to product innovation. During lunch in Palo Alto, we talked about the impacts of their social research to HP’s products, Bernado expressed how HP understands how social computing is key to business, one of the first indicators was how they were hiring younger people how they were native to these technologies.

HP Social Computing Reports to Read:
You’ll find these reports to be scientific in nature, which are a different approach than industry analyst reports, I’ve read all of the following:

Report: Crowdsourcing, Attention and Productivity (PDF)
Bernardo uses the term ‘attention’ different than web professionals (that may think of that as time on site) and defines it as “Attention is sharp focusing of your mind on something while ignoring other things.” The report’s key findings indicate that people are more likely to share online when they receive attention from their community –something he pointed out is likely related to my own online behaviors and I’d have to agree. Key takeaway? We’re all social creatures and self-expression in a vacumm won’t provide that social gratification. What should business people do? Focus on giving attention to those that say good things about your brand online by reciprocating with attention.

Report: Predicting the popularity of online content (PDF)
This report highlights how it’s possible to predict how getting people views and votes within the first few hours of posting on YouTube and Digg can predict how popular items will be for 30 days –with considerable accuracy. What should business people do? Ensure that your online web properties are getting the proper attention in immediate launch, to ensure viral spread.

Report: Social networks that matter: Twitter under the microscope I’ve already covered the highlights for the business person for Bernardo’s Twitter report, or you can access the PDF directly.

I’m impressed with the work that the Social Computing Lab is producing over at HP, and am more interested to see how it will be implemented into HP products and services. If you’re a Forrester client, you may see my reference their work in my own future reports.

I still get questions from clients saying they don’t get Twitter, and after the Presidential election the use of the tool has gone up, in fact I’m hearing many radio talk shows mention they now have a Twitter account –it’s growing.

Computerworld interviewed me (jowyang) on how business folks should use Twitter, as well as Laura Fitton (twitter) and Stowe Boyd (twitter). This is one of those articles that is a great primer for those who are hearing a lot about Twitter, but just don’t ‘get it’. So use this article, the practical steps listed, and the suggestions to learn how to best use the tool to meet your needs. I try to remind my friends don’t answer “what are you doing” but instead “What’s important to me, or you”. As you get more advanced, you may try some of the desktop clients –that can either increase your productivity –or suck you in completely.

Read ComputerWorld’s (CIO magazine) Twitter: The how to get started guide for businesspeople. Want to learn more? read all my posts on Micromedia.

In fact, a few weeks ago I visited the founders Ev and Biz in their shiny SF office overlooking the skyline. We talked about how their service is going to meet the needs for business’s, media, and users. It’s very clear to me that they’ve many options to monetize from corporate services, contextual/location based advertising, services to developers, or premium features to media companies. They expressed to me that their main focus is to build a great service for users first, then work on the monetization plans –and in that order. Given that it would be easy for them to get additional funding –or even acquired (Facebook had talks with them late last year) they’re in a comfortable place over the next few years.

Job Decline Worst in 35 years
Many of my friends –and family– members have been laid off, or are having a hard time getting a job. In fact, Forbes reports that nearly 600,000 jobs were lost in Jan due to the recession, the worst since 1974 says the SF Chronicle.

Average Tech Company Layoffs? 21%
Being native to the tech industry, I’m watching Techcrunch’s layoff tracker, which has a roster of 288,153 layoffs since August 08. Let’s assume that Techcrunch’s data is right, and focus on one of the columns listed on the report shows the percentages of layoffs per company. Being the analyst I am, I did a quick average and found out that most common percentages of layoff is 21%.

21%, this means that if you work at a tech company, and look up and down your aisle, 1/5 people you know, could be packing their boxes.

Hate Your Job? Suck It Up
After speaking with others that were thinking of leaving their jobs before Oct, they are now thinking twice, why? The competition for specific jobs is fierce, and with less compensation, people that have crappy jobs are going to suck it up, despite the fact they have to do more with less.

Got Laid Off? You’ve A Stigma to Overcome
I speak to a lot of CEOs in my job as an Industry Analyst, and I’ve been asking them where they would hire top talent from, from the existing workforce (already have a job) or those that got laid off. Each one (over 5) told me that they would still try to poach top talent from existing companies, sadly those that were laid off on first round have a stigma attached to them. In fact, some of you may be over and under qualified, and you should know the dangers and solutions.

For those that were cut in first round, I’m sensitive to your situation, you know I’m doing what I can to help those that got laid off with my survey results of those that were hired since the recession was announced.

Filtering the True Social Media Experts
So what about those that got laid off? friend and former colleague Robert Scoble suggests several tips to those who joined the mobility pool, while many make sense, he suggests that:

“This means removing ANYTHING that says you are a “social media expert” from your Twitter account. There is no such thing and even if there were there’s no job in it for you. Chris Brogan already has that job and he’s not giving it up.”

I disagree and agree, here’s why: first of all, recognize there’s a few different types of social media experts, those have have done it, and those that say they can.

Within the corporate (client) environment, it’s easy to find folks that have done it, in fact, I’ve created a list of those within companies larger than 1000 employees that are social media strategists, or community managers. I’m a bit behind on updating the list, I’ll do it soon, please carefully read the requirements before submitting.

On the vendor or agency side, this is a bit more challenging, as an client, you should ask for at least 3 case studies of success, and gauge if they are walking the talk.

However, it gets more difficult on the consultant side, why? When people get laid off, the first instinct is brand themselves a consultant for hire. As a result, anyone who has been using social media tools for personal use could brand themselves as having social media skills and experiences for corporate –yet we know it’s often very different.

Now, if you truly are a social media expert, and a consultant, you’ve likely already a book of business and you’re working with clients. Therefore any employer who is seeking to hire you, and sees that you’re positioning yourself as a social media consultant without a book of business or client or vendor experience will quickly see through it. That’s where Scoble is right.

Key Takeaway: If you are the real deal, tout it. Of course you should highlight what you’ve done right, but because we’re in a community, others will reference you –so it may not matter as much.

Update: Dawn Foster has some good points on how to find out who’s a real social media consultant.

Talking About It Openly Can Help
Here’s a unique approach, my friend Cece Salomon Lee a PR/Marketing/Social Media professional on vendor side recently god laid off, (her husband was laid off the next business day) and she’s chronicling her journey on this blog Survival Mode. I worked with her on a client/vendor relationship and am happy to be her reference.

When Layoffs Are A good Thing
Before the recession was announced, I planned a trip to Maui, in fact I just got back last week. What did I notice? Now is a great time to go on a vacation. Flights were $250 round trip from SF to Oahu (ours was only 1/3rd full), and condos were renting at $100 a night. You can go to Costco and buy food on first day, avoid eating out, and rent a car for $25 a day and go to the world’s best beaches. So if your job is secure, or you got a nice severance check –take that trip you’ve always wanted to.

Of course, layoffs are good, actually great, but only if you’re the CEO of Seagate, who received a $5,000,000.00 severance paycheck, that’s a golden parachute inside of a parachute, with a backup parachute on a glider. I counted last night, that means they’d need to sell over 50,000 Seagate Free Agent Drives (less than $100 each) to make up for that compensation –not counting his $500 hourly consulting fee. I’ll be he’s going to Hawaii.

I have a Forrester report coming soon based on the survey results from top brands, whether or not they are going to increase or decrease their social media marketing spend during a recession –stay tuned.

Above: Video by Google about it’s latest social network for mobile devices and Google IG, Latitude

I was going to write a post about Google’s new mobile social network (see video to learn about Latitude), but after an excellent interview with eWeek’s Nathan Eddy, he really captured my thoughts well. Rather than repeat it, please read his article: “Analyst: Google Latitude Not a Threat to Facebook, MySpace“.

Don’t just take my word for it, have you tried Latitude? What do you think the impacts are to marketing, advertising, developers in the next few years?

Update: I’m not alone Nicholas sees the opportunities for advertisers.

digest3

I’m respecting your limited time by publishing this weekly digest on the Social Networking space, which I cover as an industry analyst. By creating this digest (I started this over a year ago) it really helps me to stay on top of the space I cover.

I’ve created a new category called Digest (view archives). Start with the Web Strategy Summary, then quickly scan the succinct and categorized headlines, read text for my take, and click link to dive in for more.

Subscribe to this blog in your feedreader, or use the email subscription box in the right column. Or you can subscribe to this digest tag only and not receive my other posts.

Web Strategy Summary
With Facebook half a decade old, it moves through adolescence and prepares to mature, secondly, LinkedIn takes a stab at the coveted German market, it’s noteworthy that MySpace purged an incredible amount of sex offenders, the question remains, where are they going now?


Localization: LinkedIn aims at Xing by launching in German
Xing (6.5 million users), which has had a foothold in Germany as the business social network in that area now has a competitor to take on. LinkedIn is now in German and will expand it’s existing foothold of over 40 translated versions.

Revenue: iMeem charges for service
Perhaps due to a depressed economy, or pressure from the board, or increased server costs or a little of all, iMeem starts charging for it’s upload and storage services. Thanks to colleague Peter Burris for the link

Milestone: Facebook turns Five
Mark Zuckerberg announces that after 5 years, things are going well for this skyrocketing social network, read my thoughts on what this means in this MediaPost article.

Science: Genetics Influences Social Behavior
Article based on research suggests that popularity and other social behaviors of individuals may be deep rooted in genetics. Could the children on Generation Y take on the traits of their parents?

Crime: 90,000 Sex Offenders Removed from MySpace
How come all these guys mug shots are so, well arch typical of that crazy man with the van with no windows? MySpace has booted off over 90,000 sex offenders off their social network. The question remains: Where do they hang out instead?

Finance: LinkedIn ready to go public anytime
Profitable social network LinkedIn has been known to be successful generating revenues in a variety of economies and markets, CEO Reid Hoffman suggests that the company can go public anytime.

Developers: Fragile Community Aches after Redesign
While some suggest it’s risky to build your business off someone else’s platform, Developers that are hooked into Facebook must be ready for changes and quickly adopt, in this case, some are still reeling from the pains of the last Facebook redesign.

Deployment: Social Network For Davos WEF Attendees
Davos’s World Economic Forum launched WELCOM a social network for the attendees, watch this video of the premise of the project. Let’s hope these influentials (who I doubt have the time) to try to fix the global economic challenges. Screenshots are available for you here.

Challenges: Why your Community Efforts may Fail
Good reminder of some of the key challenges of why your efforts may be failing.

Community: Jive launches Community for Customers
In my recent Wave report, I judged companies on eating their own dog food, whether or not they had a community for their own customer base. Jive has offered a community site for support, developers, and product. With 67,000 members, I have to ask, where is the community for the business folks? (Update: see comments below from Sam Lawrence)

Case Study: Lithium launches
Lithium, who was also in the wave, touts a recent case study with a community called ACT: “In the 12 months since its launch, the ACT! community has had over 8.9 million page views and 266,000 searches, far surpassing Sage’s expectations.”

Mobile: Mobile social networks
Match2Blue which offers a social network for mobile phones provides some interesting features, but with Google’s launch of latitude this week, quick innovation and marketing will be key.


If you’re a social network, or widget company, I want to know of your news, send me an email, or leave a comment below. Help me stay up to date.

Hungry For Social Networking Stats? Then you should see my collection of Social Networks Stats for 2008 and 2009. Bookmark them, then share it with others as I continue to update it.

I’ll be a keynote speaker at the Internet Strategy Forum Summit in Portland in July 23rd, I attended this conference of corporate web decision makers two years ago –and have attended some local meetings here in the bay area.

The ISF has conducted a survey and has made data available about corporate web decision makers, this brief (I’ve read the full version, which is available for purchase) gives information on how web strategists are organized, their concerns, and even compensation. The highlights of this research will be presented at the Summit, along with other informative speeches and case studies.

A free four page summary of the brief is available below, or you can download on the site.

2009 ISF Corporate Internet Executive Research 4-Page Sample Brief

I will always promote and point to research that’s good, even if it’s not mine, thanks to Steve Gehlen (he’s on twitter) for making this possible, see you in July!

We’re in tough times. With some calling Denny’s free Grand Slams akin to a soup kitchen, we know it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

As a result, you’ll notice some commentary from me on my blog that has little to do with corporate web strategy, but I know my readers, and these are the things that keep them up at night, well heck, just about everyone.

While some say that the ‘fat’ from the company is being let go, I am seeing some of my contacts and friends who I know are very capable transferring to the ‘mobility pool’. When you see thousands getting cut in single strokes, you know that very qualified professionals will be let go. Layoffs impact families, cause home stress, force individuals to rethink their expenses, and even make people move to less desirable areas.

Over Qualified Combat For Positions They’re Surprised to Consider
Some of these capable professionals will be applying to positions that they’ve never thought of before, perhaps jobs they would have been delighted to entertain these jobs 5, 10, or even 20 years ago but now, food on the table is top priority. Some will even fight for jobs in new industries that they’ve never considered before, perhaps in retail, food service, or other industries that are polar opposite of plush corporate jobs.

So what’s the challenge? It seems like they should easily be able to walk into any position and after the first interview land the job, right? Not so fast, employers will want to still hire the best fit for the job –not necessarily the most experienced or capable. Why? someone with too much experience or too much education for the position may demand a higher salary –or ask for more a few months down the road. Secondly, these overqualified candidates are flight risks, as soon as the economy picks up, they’re gone to find a more suitable position with better perks and pay.

This puts well qualified workers into a real dilemma if they need to find a new job, here are the options:

  • Suck it up and apply for less than desirable positions, but strut your stuff, hoping the employer will realize what a good buy you are
  • Dumb down the resume and interview skills not to let in that you’re over qualified for the position
  • Hold out for a job that suits their actual level of experience and education –despite that cash in hand may be slipping by.
  • Take a lateral move and go back to school and get that MBA you’ve always wanted
  • Create their own business, or simply move to beautiful Hana, Maui and live off the land. Really, traveling during a recession is cheap, I saw rates for Hawaii for $250 a round trip.
  • What’s the answer? Each individual will have to figure out what strategy works best for them, I’m sure we’ll see variations of the above.

    Under Qualified Battle Against Experienced
    My kid sister just graduated college, so I’m seeing how this impacts her generation.

    I occasionally get emails from college students that are reading this blog, and some of them are going to graduate and head into the workforce. They have perhaps equally a tough spot as the overqualified as they may be competing for positions with candidates that have actual work experience.

  • Some advice for you, you should be working in real world applications during college, part time, internships, or even at the computer lab on campus. While good grades and the diploma are certainly helpful, in corporate, there’s a reason why the education section goes to the bottom of the resume.
  • Secondly, read more and more free content online from blogs, trade sites, and industry news to pick up on the language and real world issues in the industry that you’re aiming for. Likely you have more time than money, so get really in tune with your market.
  • Go back to school and get that graduate degree –but run the risk of not having enough work experience when you hit the workforce.
  • The Kid Sister chimes in, and suggests students should take advantage of career fairs, read her thoughts in the comments.
  • Career Considerations for Everybody
    Here’s a few other things to consider during these lean times. Have you paid yourself first during the high times? Did you build your network before you needed them? You don’t want to be classified as a “nut”worker. Also, it’s not as bad as it seems (at least for people connected to me) read these survey results.

    Give some Advice in the Comments
    I’ve spelled out a few options and suggestions, but I’d like to hear from you, what should the under and over qualified job candidates do to succeed in a tough economy.

    Jobs in a Recession Survey Results 4: Most Recent Hires Found Full-Time Positions

    This is part 4 of an ongoing community project to help people understand how to get jobs during a recession.

    This data is slightly skewed towards those that are already active in social media as the survey went to those within my network on my blog and the highly connected Twitter community. There were 214 respondents to the survey although this graphic only represents those who got jobs since Sept 2008 (71 respondents) that represent those that were hired during the announcement of the recession. This sample set is smaller than one would expect out of a formal research project, after multiple promotions, it was capping out at 200 respondents, and I don’t have other resources to deploy against email lists, or affiliate programs. This is a personal research project, and is not tied to my employer, clients, or anyone else for that matter.


    Finding 4: Most Recent Hires Found Full-Time Positions
    This is just the data from the 71 respondents that got hired since Sept 2008 (since the recession was announced).

  • 78% of those recently hired reported that they landed full-time jobs
  • A mere 7% received contract, and another 7% received consultant jobs
  • Even less received part time jobs
  • This means that 78% of respondents were hired in full employment positions, likely with benefits.


    Recommendations for Job Seekers in a Recession

  • Don’t change strategy just yet and offer up that you’ll work part time if you really want a full time position.
  • Companies are still seeking full time bodies for long term programs –make sure your resume reflects this.
  • For those seeking part time, consulting or contracting, you should also think about other job opportunities in full time positions.

  • To find the other results from this survey, I’ll be tagging the post “Job Survey” and you can click that category to learn more.

    Coming soon I’ll be posting results for: titles that were hired, and some other interesting data cuts

    Resources: See my Web Strategy Job Board, or Job Wire.

    The Importance of Nurturing

    Categories: RuminationsPosted on February 2nd, 2009

    It’s amazing how things come back around, when you least expect them.

    Earlier today I talked to John Batelle, the CEO of Federated Media, he spends a lot of time educating clients and helping them learn, moving them from the “Why” to the “What” to the “How” questions. It pays off for him in spades, as he’s able to demonstrate his knowledge, leadership, and get his customers to trust him and his company.

    A few years ago, I helped a junior PR person at an agency try to understand social media, I even had a phone call with her to give her some guidance and share what I know –there wasn’t anything in it for me. Two years later, she joins the corporate communications group of one of the world’s largest tech companies, and became my internal champion.

    She arranged for some internal client calls where I offer them some advice (called client ‘inquiry’ calls which are no cost to clients) It grew to a scoping call, which spread from department to department to department. It’s now grown into a very large customer research project –that spans nearly the entire enterprise. We deliver the research results in the near future and hundreds of employees will be in attendance and the data will be used to shape how they approach social media for the long run. In fact, if you’re a social media vendor or agency to this brand, it’s likely you’ll eventually see some of the research that we prepared and you can factor into your work with the brand.

    Just goes to show, that helping people –even when there’s nothing in it for you– can lead to great rewards in the future. Sadly, times for me have changed, I had 10 meetings alone today, and don’t have enough time to even talk to personal friends during the work day, so I have to rely on this blog to help others –although it’s not as personal as even a phone call.

    Be good to others, share with them and nurture them, can’t think of anything more ‘social’ than that.

    My job as an industry analyst is listen to pitches from different vendors, from small startups, to the web giants. I get paid (yes I’m a professional BS filter) to listen to their pitches –and then translate it into reality for reports and for our clients, the buyers.

    Here’s a few things I’ve learned to translate, and I’m going to share with you here now –so you, as a buyer, will know the danger zones when you’re buying from a vendor. In most cases, you can skip the first 5 slides of any presentation, a great time to fiddle with blackberry, smack talk on twitter using your iphone, start a game of bullshit bingo, or figure out a way to sound relevant.


    How to Translate Vendor Talk into Plain English

    The Famous Two by Two Grid
    For some reason, vendors think anything in a chart is believable, even if they made it up themselves! Typically, in the first five slides of a presentation, there’s a two-by-two grid (image: sample grid, not for re-use) where the vendor always positions in the top right. The competitors are scattered in all the other quadrants, but are never more further ‘up and to the right’ than the vendor. The funny thing is, the X and Y axis are often criteria that you won’t find on any research report –and every vendor’s 2×2 is different so they’re ‘up and to the right’. Update: I forgot about this post from former analyst Carter Lusher, now AR advisor, he says to get rid of grids all together.

    Translation: We know up and to the right is best, so we created our own X and Y axis labels, we’re hoping you won’t read the small print “tallest CEO” or “best ping pong players in support”

    We’re the “Industry Leader”
    I’ve heard this one over and over, in fact everyone’s an industry leader at something. “Industry leader at wom in Facebook in Tuesdays” or “Industry leader in community interactions in Fresno at YMCA” The trick here is to ask them who determined they were the industry leader, and if the category is large –and believable enough.

    Translation: Leading is a good term to use, but the size of the industry and how we segment is up to us, don’t ask questions as we’ll just tell you “We’ll get back to you on those details”

    The Logo Smorgasbord
    Vendors love to put many logos on one of the first 10 slides, it’s meant to amaze you and show that they are with it with the big brands. The trick here is that even the smallest of deployments will validate a logo on that slide –and sometimes without the permission of that brand. If you’re interviewing competitors you’ll notice that many of them share the same customers as others in their space, it’s likely true. I often see Cisco, IBM, Microsoft, and other big tech companies on nearly every logo slide from even competitors.

    Translation: The more logos we cram on here the more you’ll be impressed, if you rotate your head back and forth real fast, it’s kinda like a kaleidoscope…but digital.

    The Fallacy of Vendor Math
    You’ve probaly heard vendor math before: “We’ve 39 of the Fortune 50″ or a variation on a theme “17 of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies use us”, or we’ve 150% year on year in new clients in enterprise space. While factual, deciding on numerators and denominators can be tweaked to fit the needs of every vendor. Secondly, the universe of “Fortune” companies changes annually, if not more frequently. Vendor math may sound impressive –but it’s likely skewed, of course, this is coming from the 7th most popular Jeremiah above in most Google searches. (thanks to analyst for this one Laura Ramos)

    Translation: Whoever told you numbers never lie was right, ‘cept perspective is a son of a gun. We didn’t want to tell you that 150% year on year growth of new enterprise clients could be going from 2 customers to 5 (but one was my brother’s company)

    Our Many Awards
    Everyone loves a shiny trophy, and we see accolades and awards from just about every vendor. Contests from blogs, conferences, editors, and even analysts. With everyone getting awards, and touting it too, it’s hard to put any real value on any of them.

    Translation: We’re hope you’re impressed with this shout out and award from this blogspot blogger in 2005 –it’s hanging next to our elk head in the den by the wetbar.

    Most Successful Investors Ever
    Hearing about investors is common in the nascent social media space, so there’s often a slide on company stats that touts the experience of the management team and vision. Notice that Reid Hoffman is on everyone’s investor slide? Me too, I think he’s invested in the entire internet!

    Translation: Reid invested in the whole internet! No seriously, he really did! (Ok really it’s about 60 companies, but using Vendor Math, that’s nearly the whole internet, at least the north west side of the ‘nets.)

    Now if you’re a vendor (or perhaps their PR agency), don’t be offended and use this information to improve your communications. In all due fairness, if someone has a list of ‘translating Analyst/Client speak’ I’ll link to it here too (I made fun of myself here). Oh, and for the record, Reid Hoffman really is successful, and I’m scheduled to meet with him soon.

    Have you heard any other vendor talk that can be translated into regular English? If I like em, I’ll add it to the above and credit/link to ya!

    Update: Who’s the best at making fun of vendors? Independent Analyst Jon Toigo who covers the storage industry created this creative spoof gallery clowning on the 3 lettered storage vendors (IBM, EMC, HDS, ESS-HP, NAP) I used to work at HDS, and always admired his photoshop skills. I think I’m going to start one for social media vendors, hmmmmmm.

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