Archive for April, 2008


Forrester Report: Global Enterprise Web 2.0 Market Forecast: 2007 To 2013

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Figure 1: In 2008, Business Adoption Of Web 2.0 Tools Is Expected To Grow Strongly
In 2008, Business Adoption Of Web 2.0 Tools Is Expected To Grow Strongly

Global Enterprise Web 2.0 Market Forecast
On Monday, colleague Oliver Young (I was involved with the report) published a forward looking report on the growth of Web 2.0 technologies within the enterprise entitled Global Enterprise Web 2.0 Market Forecast: 2007 To 2013. As I mention with every report, you can purchase it directly from the site, or if not satisfied, obtain a refund, as we stand by the quality of our products.

Who should read this report?
Anyone investing in the space such as VCs, leadership at Social Media companies, or those involved in purchasing at corporations for social media tools.

Caveat: Sans services and “organic” sites
It’s important to note that calculations do not include properties such as ‘organic social networks’ like Facebook (which is valued at $15b), nor do they include services (a report I hope to do soon), so the numbers, in our opinion are just a slice of the overall technology sector. For example, in 2008 we project enterprise spending on Web 2.0 technology to account for just 0.2% of the $364bn global corporate spending on software and to barely even register as part of the $1.7 trillion we expect to see spent on technology overall is a useful piece of context. When you think about social media tools for the enterprise, most often, these commodity technologies are cheap, easy to deploy, and often free.

Web 2.0 Expo, a Physical Manifestation
I spent the last two days at the Web 2.0 expo (I was an advisor to the show), where 7000 people from this market assembled into one building. Who are these people? they are the ‘market’;, vendors, clients, analysts, press, media, and users. It was clear to me many mainstream businesses were attending, I’ll take a guess that many early adopters within the enterprise (I was that guy at Hitachi Data Systems) are dragging their boss, and colleagues who were once nay-sayers to the conference to learn. I saw many Fortune 1000 brands there trying to learn and understand how to use these tools for business.

Mainstreaming
To me, last year’s Web 2.0 expo was far different, it was a geek fest, where live streaming was prominent, and there was much more fascination over the tools –rather than the business impact. This year, many of the questions and folks I met were interested in using these tools to improve their business, they weren’t enamored with the latest widget. On the show floor, I spoke to two CEOs who read the report and commented that the numbers looked in par to their expectations.

Technology Infrastructure moves in
SUN (Who’s had the startup essentials program for a few years), HP, NetAPP, EMC were all present on the show room floor. What do they have to do with Web 2.0? In most cases, this is not their core business, but they realize this growing market will need infrastructure and technology to power these websites. I was pushing for this nearly 3 years ago at the data storage level, but I guess I was too early. Another change is the strong presence of an analyst firm, in this case it was Forrester, we were involved with four sessions, hosted a party, and launched a book. I guess this movement really is headed mainstream now.

What others are saying: in agreement and disagreement
Our friends at ZDNet may have misunderstood what we were actually sizing, at first it was assumed it was just “enterprise 2.0” (internal) purchases, but in reality, this sizing encompasses externally facing (marketing), and is the largest piece of the pie.

The above and following image was posted on many blogs on Monday, where I encourage you to following the conversation and analysis. First, start with Read Write Web (Oilver and I are big fans of this blog), then Andy Beal takes Here’s the Reason Why Small Businesses Won’t Adopt “Enterprise 2.0″, and for a counterpoint, the respected Dennis Howlett The problem with Forrester’s $4.6 billion prediction, I always enjoy Dennis’ contrarion position, it’s needed in the industry. (update: Oliver Young left a comment on his post)

(This post was reviewed by colleague Analyst Oliver Young, who published the report)


Figure 4: Forecast: Global Enterprise Web 2.0 Spend By Technology, 2007 To 2013
Forecast: Global Enterprise Web 2.0 Spend By Technology, 2007 To 2013

Listening to the Audience (Twitter) at Web 2.0 Expo: The Balance of Value vs Entertainment

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I had near polar experiences on my two panels yesterday, the first one I moderated called Community Building: Good, Bad, and Ugly, and the second as a panelist: Short Attention Span Theater: The Birth of Microblogging & Micromedia.


A “Boring” panel that shifted to audience questions
Now the first panel had very enterprise technology companies present: Jive Software (Dawn Foster), Intel (Bob Duffy), PC/Mac World (Kellie Parker) and Forrester. We were very pragmatic, informational, and provide best practices information. While the majority of people enjoyed the discussion, I noticed an increase of Fortune 5000 attendees who are craving ‘how to’ information, some found the panel “dry” or “boring”. I tend to agree, the content we provided had lots of nuggets if insight, practical examples.

I was watching twitter in real-time to gauge the audience reaction (a best practice I prescribe in how to moderate a panel) and saw two tweets, in particular this one:

“I agree with @nickionita…community building panel is a snooze”

Like any speaker, when you start to see audience feedback like this your heart flutters and your mind jumps forward to images of SXSW. Quick! what do you do?

I think of the audience members as customers (they’ve paid with time and money) so I acknowledged them in twitter, and let everyone know we would quickly shift to questions, so the audience could drive the agenda. We received over a dozen questions, and I hope the audience was satisfied, lots of good hard questions from many folks on the ground that are trying to solve these problems: getting management to agree, measuring roi, dealing with detractors, etc.

After which, I think we won him over:

Questions made the panel: Love hearing viewpoints from people with boots on the ground

Thank you Chrisainsworth and Nickionita for giving me the feedback. The summary of the whole session can be found from this love blog from Lasandra. Update: another summary from Manage to Change. A review came in, 3/5 stars.


Crowd Sourcing the Agenda to the Audience –Using Twitter
Now, the next panel (Greg Narain, Brian Solis, Stowe Boyd) wasn’t traditional by any sense, it was an experiment, where we crowd-sourced the agenda to the audience –they used Twitter. Greg Narain setup an application where members from the audience could message (@micromedia2) and their tweets (comments, questions, requests, answers, and sometimes jokes made at Scoble’s expense) were seen live on the screen. The focus was less on the panelists and the things we were to say, and more on the discussion between hundreds of people in the room –all from computers and mobile devices.

While certainly very, very entertaining, and very very interesting, the panel offered little insight or value. My colleague Josh Bernoff even tweeted that while it was entertaining, he was waiting for that breakthrough insight. Josh is a uber-analyst, and probably would have benefited from my first panel more than the second, although he enjoyed himself.

I asked for raise of hands at the end of the session, two thought it was ‘ok’, two thought it was a ‘bad’ session, and the majority, over 90% thought it was a good session. The people rule. Later, I talked to the gentleman who thought the session was negative, and his reason was because he was left out, and didn’t know how to get twitter started. I spent a few minutes with him, giving him the basic, and told him how to start an account at twitter, how to tweet, and how to add followers.

The session was far more ‘remarkable’ than the first (we can tell as people actually took the time to blog about it…yes that old thing) and you can read about Examples of how to use Twitter for Business Purposes. Micromedia and Microblogging session capture, and our new friend Shanti from Sun who didn’t get twittering before the panel, decided to give it a try (please welcome her if you’re on twitter). Update: Jacob highlights how the conversation in Twitter went downhill –as it spread around the globe.


So what does this all mean?
I need to improve my panel skills, make sure we’re entertain while providing value, and also know when letting the crowd control too much results in little value. While agenda setters and panelists certainly lead the presentation, for this audience of tech-minded folks, learning how to listen in real-time, make course corrections, and listen to the audience is key for today’s modern conference.

The audience is now more of participants, literally up on stage –well at least at my panels.

Update: I had my third and final panel (moderator) at Web 2.0 Expo today on Facebook Best Practices (plus I was an advisor to the event), and received the following tweet that made my day:

Olsen should be monitoring Twitter like Owyang was for his sessions!

Forrester Report: Google’s OpenSocial: Good News For Marketing Widgets But No Silver Bullet

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I’m proud to announce my latest report on OpenSocial. If you’re not familiar with that, check out How to Explain OpenSocial to your Executives.

I interview Google, developers, and social network platforms to find out their ideology and experience with converting applications to the OpenSocial protocol, and I quickly learned that while the promise is indeed a powerful one, in reality, it will be very difficult to achieve. In some cases, developers tell me that widget code needs to be modified up to 50%.

For clients, you can access the short report on the Forrester site, or you can purchase it on the site. As much as I’d love to share this research to everyone, like you have your products, this is ours, and there are costs associated.

Google’s OpenSocial: Good News For Marketing Widgets But No Silver Bullet Google, along with a congress of more than a dozen social networks, plans to launch OpenSocial, a set of standards that will allow widgets to be built once and run on any Web site compatible with OpenSocial. What’s in it for interactive marketers? The ability to efficiently create engaging branded experiences that reach millions of new communities. However, don’t expect your widgets to universally proliferate, as adoption will vary based upon the demographic and technical characteristics of each online community. Interactive marketers should deploy widgets using OpenSocial standards, yet they should also plan — and budget — for rapid iterations and flexibility.

I interviewed:
Google’s OpenSocial Team, IBM’s Lotus Team, KickApps, NewsGator Technologies, Plaxo’s Joseph Smarr, Six Apart’s David Recordon, and Nick O’Neil of SocialTimes.com

Video: Meeting Oahu’s Top Bloggers

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On my last night of official ‘work’ before going offline, I was able to meetup with Hawaii’s top bloggers, access this post directly (if you’re seeing this in a feedreader) to watch video.

Whenever I travel to a new city for business, I try to meet the local bloggers at a community dinner, I’ve now friends all over the world, and we connect on twitter, blogs, and social networks to keep track of each other. Ryan Ozawa (who has the only Hawaii licence plate “Blog”, see pic below), the community leader and early technology adopter helped organize this dinner of Oahu’s top bloggers. About 15 of us assembled at a local joint (I was the only tourist) and we had authentic food –minus the luau, dancing, or fire spinning. Believe me, this was a real treat for me. I’m not even going to link to the restaurant website as I don’t want to spoil it for the locals, but if you’re a smart web hunter, you’ll figure it out.

I spent some time with Welton, who lives in Waikiki, he took me to some local bars after dinner, (Ryan’s) and gave me the low down of life in Honolulu from a local’s perspective. Some of the guys were live streaming the dinner from their phone, a bit grainy, but you can follow in from this player. Check out the coverage from Ryan Ozawa.

Truly one of the most friendliest groups I have ever met, the Aloha spirit was really there, including receiving a gorgeous flower lei from Xapa.

The one thing I noticed is that when I’ve visited HK, Singapore, Portland, and now Hawaii for blogger dinners, the local tech community doesn’t get together as much in real life, they often need someone to trigger it forward. I certainly hope that this Oahu group can start meeting more frequently, and to grow their community. (Ryan Ozawa left a comment with more color around this, please read that below)

Ryan left his thoughts on his blog, and took a roll call of those who attended:

  • Burt Lum (@bytemarks)
  • Cathy
  • Chris (@techustle)
  • Dave Zuls (@hawaiiseo)
  • Ian Kitajima (@ikitajima)
  • Jennifer Ozawa (@kilinahe)
  • Jeremiah Owyang (@jowyang)
  • Joe Philipson (@jphilipson)
  • Jonathan Wong (@hawyn316)
  • Kara Baker (@xapa)
  • Lianne Kitajima (@lkitajima)
  • Neenz Faleafine (@infinitypro)
  • Roberto (@88hawaii)
  • Ryan Ozawa (@hawaii)
  • Welton (@welton)
  • 04102008498License Plate "BLOG"04102008502Ryan Ozawa at Family TempleAuthentic Hawaiian food041020085050410200850704102008508041020085090410200849704102008495

    Photoblog: And Paradise was Nice

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    I’m back with the requisite mainlander pink sunburn, 6 days in Hawaii did me good, we stayed in the North shore, which is mainly untouched, unlike the crowded skyrises of Japanese/tourist owned Honolulu.

    To unplug was good, but I’m still going to slowly wade back to shore (aka reality). Mentally, I’m still floating in the blue azul sea, I guess the vacation wasn’t long enough.

    I’m not the only one that’s distancing themselves from the conversation, so expect me to slowly return to normal, if at all.

    But, in the meantime I wanted to share some of the photos I took from the vacation, all are untouched raw photos from the Nokia N95 camera phone. Please note that I test social media products, and this one was given to me from a fellow analyst, which I have since given away.

    Update: We stayed at Gigi’s rentals, in these beach cottages, (specifically this one Gigi’s Ocean Paradise) very affordable, less than a hotel. See Google Map, it’s the cottage, not the large complex. It’s nice to shop for you own food at the local supermarkets, getting fresh seafood and wine/beer, and not spending ridiculous amounts of money on food.


    Oahu Sunrise: North Shore
    View from Hau’ula, Oahu’s Quiet and Rural North Shore, this was my daily morning view….sigh

    Waving
    Gentle sway, rustles in the wind

    Sunrise, East Oahu Shore
    Warm sunrises

    Crab Fan
    Every morning, the sand crabs dug ‘fans’…

    Crab Mounds
    …and mounds

    04152008758
    Seclusion

    04142008724
    Clean morning air

    Turtle tracks
    Tracks of a giant sea turtle

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    Where we stayed, our private beach

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    Kayak

    Secluded Beach
    Private Beach

    boards
    Surfboards in Kawailoa, the Surfing Capital of the World

    Matsumoto’s Shave Ice
    Matsumoto’s famous shaved ice

    Giovanni's shrimp truck
    Giovanni’s Shrimp Truck

    Giovanni's shrimp
    The shrimp is raised in local shrimp farms, very fresh. We brought our own beer

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    Peacock in Waimea Valley

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    Lifeguard tower at Bonsai Pipeline

    Bonzai Pipeline
    Bonzai Pipeline

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    Silhouette

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    Kailua Bay

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    Buoys

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    Fragrant

    our beach house
    Beach Cottage

    Aloha!

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    I need a vacation, I’ve been on the grid for over 900 days.

    I’m going to be spending some time away, which will be the first time in over two and a half years that I’ll be completely offline. I won’t be checking email, my blog, or twitter, so you’ll have to catch me when I get back in a few days.

    The last 6 months as an analyst have been very busy, I hit my goals in the role, published research, helped clients, and supported the company move it’s own social media efforts forward –all while maintaining this blog.

    But not everything went smoothly, I’ve made a few mistakes on the way that I wish I could have fixed, but I’ll file those away as some hard lessons. A rough customer presentation, a few internal speedbumps, trying hard to learn how to write reports in the Forrester style (it’s like learning a new language) and learning new research and analytical skills. I’ve given up a lot of sleep, frankly, I worked hard, so I need to recharge.

    So, I’m delivering a presentation to executives of B2B tech companies from around the world today in Oahu, then I’ll be taking some time off and will return fully charged.

    In the meantime, while I take some time off, I encourage you to follow the following people: Colleagues Josh Bernoff and Charlene Li on the Groundwell blog, Peter Kim, Shel Israel who’s cataloging how social media impacts culture, and listen to Jennifer Jones’ Marketing Voices on your walk/jog/workout. Each of these folks are respected peers, and have become great personal friends.

    If you want to peruse my archives, some of my most popular posts are here, or you can leave me feedback about this blog in this survey I’m running.

    But don’t just take my recommendations, if you know someone that’s doing great work in the internet strategy, web marketing, or social media space, leave a comment suggesting them below.

    I really enjoy this industry, the collaboration of the community, and meeting so many interesting people, thank you all being part of this online experience.

    Aloha!